Iran and Russia Challenge U.S. Influence in Caucasus Peace Deal

The geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus is shifting following a provisional peace deal signed on August 8, 2023, involving U.S. President Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. This agreement is seen as a significant diplomatic maneuver that could enhance U.S. influence in a region traditionally dominated by Russia and Iran. However, the implications of this deal are complex, as the path to lasting peace is fraught with challenges.

The Joint Declaration, labeled as a commitment to “eternal peace,” is more of a memorandum than a binding contract. The document emphasizes the need for ongoing dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan but lacks concrete provisions. It simply reiterates previous statements by both leaders regarding their intentions to pursue a peace agreement. The declaration notably omits mention of a critical obstacle: Azerbaijan’s demand for Armenia to amend its constitution to recognize Baku’s sovereignty over the Nagorno Karabakh region, which was reclaimed by Azerbaijan in 2023.

While some elements of the agreement could potentially pave the way for solutions, such as Azerbaijan’s demand for a corridor connecting its mainland to the Nakhchivan exclave, the specifics remain ambiguous. The U.S. is expected to play a role in managing this corridor, but the declaration states that U.S. and Armenian officials are only expressing their “determination to pursue efforts in good faith” towards this goal.

Joshua Kucera, a senior analyst for Crisis Group, noted that while the summit represents progress, many questions remain unanswered. He described the outcomes as largely a “repackaging” of prior agreements. Notably, Kucera pointed out that part of the motivation for the deal may stem from a desire by both leaders to gain favor with Trump.

The corridor has been dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP, a name that could enhance U.S. involvement in the region. Trump’s personal brand is now at stake, increasing the likelihood that Washington will continue to pressure both Armenia and Azerbaijan to advance the peace process.

Despite this, opposition from Russia and Iran looms large. Sergei Markov, a Russian political scientist, warned that the establishment of a U.S. corridor in Armenia would create what he described as an “American semi-state military base,” undermining Russian and Iranian interests. Markov emphasized that this development alters the strategic situation throughout the South Caucasus.

Iran’s response has also been firm. Ali Akbar Velayati, a former Iranian foreign minister and advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, condemned the corridor as a “political plot” that threatens Iranian security. He asserted that Iran would use all available means to prevent the corridor’s establishment, branding it a potential “graveyard” for U.S. interests in the region.

The Kremlin has indicated dissatisfaction with the unfolding situation but has taken a more reserved approach in its response. Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, hinted that increased U.S. involvement could lead to greater instability in the Caucasus. She urged that foreign involvement should aim to enhance peace rather than create new divisions, recalling the difficulties of Western interventions in the Middle East.

Domestically, Pashinyan may face considerable opposition to the peace plan. Current public sentiment in Armenia indicates that only about one-third of citizens believe the country is heading in the right direction. Experts suggest that while the peace deal could offer Armenia a chance for economic diversification and greater strategic autonomy, its success will depend on navigating internal divisions and external pressures.

Ultimately, the future of TRIPP and the broader peace process remains uncertain. Kucera cautioned that if Trump is seeking an effortless diplomatic victory, he may be mistaken regarding the complexities of the South Caucasus. Much work remains to be done to achieve a sustainable peace in the region, with numerous hurdles still to overcome.