Oil Prices Threaten to Surge Past $150 Amid Supply Disruptions

Global oil prices are on the brink of a significant increase, with potential to surpass $100 per barrel within days, and possibly reach as high as $150 by the end of March 2026. This warning comes from Goldman Sachs, which cites ongoing disruptions to crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz as a critical factor. The investment bank noted that oil flows through this vital maritime route, linking major Middle Eastern producers to international markets, have decreased more dramatically than anticipated following the recent US-Israeli military actions against Iran.

Initially, Goldman Sachs projected that crude flows through the Strait would fall to around 15% of normal levels. However, the current situation shows that only about 10% of the usual oil cargoes are able to transit the strait due to Iran’s effective blockade of tankers. In a client communication issued on Friday, the bank characterized the disruption as a shock that far exceeds previous global supply crises.

“Based on these new data and the size of the shock, we now believe that oil prices will likely exceed $100 next week if no signs of solutions emerge by then,” the report stated. The bank further indicated that prices for refined oil products could surpass the peaks seen in 2008 and 2022 if the situation does not improve throughout March.

According to Goldman Sachs, the impact on global oil flows last week was estimated to be 17 times greater than the peak production loss experienced in April 2022, following Vladimir Putin‘s invasion of Ukraine, which saw crude prices rise to approximately $110 per barrel. The international oil benchmark briefly surpassed $120 in 2022 and reached around $145 during the 2008 energy crisis, both of which had severe repercussions for the global economy.

The current upward trend in oil prices is already evident, with values rising above $90 per barrel late last week. This marked the largest weekly increase since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic six years ago, including a $10 spike in a single day on Friday. Trading on weekend markets indicated further increases, with US crude prices climbing above $94 per barrel on Sunday. This signals a likely rise when global financial markets resume trading.

Analysts are taking a cautious stance, recognizing that the supply shock is likely to persist. Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted, “The grace period given by the market to the Trump administration expired at the end of last week. A deficit of 20 million barrels per day is hitting global oil market balances with no sign of relief.” Seigle’s comments reflect concerns surrounding the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their effects on oil supply.

Oil prices have surged more than 50% this year, rising from about $60 per barrel at the start of 2026. Initial increases began gradually in January and February, but escalated sharply following the US-Israeli attack on Iran just over a week ago. As global markets adjust to these developments, the potential for further price hikes remains a pressing concern for consumers and economies worldwide.