Rail Market Confidence Declines as Businesses Cut Staff

A recent survey conducted by the Railway Industry Association (RIA) reveals a significant decline in confidence within the rail market over the past year. The survey, which included responses from 125 railway business leaders and was carried out by independent polling company Savanta in October and November 2025, indicates that many companies are freezing recruitment or reducing staff to adapt to challenging market conditions.

The findings show that 64% of rail business leaders anticipate a contraction in the rail market within the next 12 months, a notable increase from 48% in the previous year’s survey. In contrast, only 12% of leaders expect growth, down from 26% in 2024. This sentiment is reflected in the actions taken by businesses, with 62% reporting hiring freezes or staff reductions, and 34% making redundancies. Furthermore, a substantial 85% believe there will be a hiatus in rail work in the coming year.

The survey highlights that companies are prioritising work outside the UK as a response to the current economic climate. While the number of leaders predicting business contraction fell by six percentage points to 23%, those optimistic about growth also decreased by two percentage points to 44%. The results underscore a pressing need for measures to bolster confidence among rail suppliers.

RIA Chief Executive Darren Caplan described the survey’s findings as “concerning.” He emphasized the paradox of rising rail passenger and freight levels, which necessitate increased capacity, set against a backdrop of declining confidence. “Rail passenger, freight and revenue levels are rising and more capacity will be required in the future, yet confidence in the UK rail market is falling,” Caplan stated.

Caplan highlighted the long-standing warnings from the RIA and its members regarding the cyclical nature of rail infrastructure investment. He expressed that the current trends could lead to a loss of talent and skills to other sectors or international markets if confidence is not restored. “More needs to be done to give rail suppliers the confidence they need to compete for work and invest in their business plans,” he added.

As the industry grapples with these challenges, Caplan remains cautiously optimistic about future projects such as the Transpennine Route Upgrade, East West Rail, Midlands Rail Hub, and the Docklands Light Rail extension. However, he stressed that immediate action is necessary to enhance confidence in the market.

To address the current situation, the RIA urges the government to provide clearer information about rail enhancement projects included in its Infrastructure Pipeline. Additionally, a comprehensive rolling stock strategy is essential to ensure long-term planning. Caplan called for transparency regarding innovative funding solutions, whether private or third-party, and for major rail clients to outline their spending plans without delay, especially in light of the government’s recent Spending Review and Budget priorities.

These steps could help mitigate the current concerns regarding market confidence and offer suppliers the certainty they need as the rail industry undergoes restructuring with the establishment of Great British Railways in the coming years.