EU Delays Montenegro’s Accession Talks Amid Concerns Over Democracy

The European Commission has declined to approve the draft accession agreement with Montenegro, reflecting its cautious approach to admitting new members. This decision highlights the Commission’s primary concern: avoiding a repeat of Hungary’s democratic backsliding under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. As Montenegro nears the end of its membership negotiations, discussions are underway about how the country can align with EU standards while safeguarding the bloc’s core values.

Montenegrin President Jakov Milatović has indicated that he is in talks with EU leaders regarding the accession process, including discussions during his recent visit to Ireland. Ireland will hold the presidency of the EU Council in the latter half of this year, making these discussions particularly timely. The Commission has proposed implementing “long-term safeguard measures” within Montenegro’s accession treaty, aiming to ensure that the EU can respond effectively should the nation regress in areas such as democracy or the rule of law. An anonymous EU official noted that this treaty will set the framework for future accession agreements.

The situation is not unique to Montenegro; other nations, including Ukraine, are also vying for EU membership. Ukraine aims to join the EU by 2027 as part of a broader peace agreement with Russia. Discussions on the EU’s capacity to manage potential setbacks are ongoing, especially in light of Hungary’s recent actions, including its obstruction of the EU’s sanctions against Russia.

The Commission’s priority is clear: it seeks to prevent Montenegro and other prospective members from becoming “Hungary 2.0.” The new accession treaty will be crafted by a working group organized under the Cypriot presidency, with input from all EU member states. The timeline for this group to form is still uncertain, though an official indicated it could occur within “a few weeks.”

Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos confirmed that the Commission is in the final stages of preparing the draft treaty, but did not specify a timeline for its completion. France has expressed reluctance to support the treaty, adopting a cautious stance on EU expansion ahead of its presidential elections in 2027. High-ranking EU diplomats have stated that efforts are underway to persuade France to agree to the draft.

The proposed safeguard measures remain somewhat nebulous. Discussions are ongoing regarding potential suspensions of voting rights for Montenegro and any new members that violate fundamental EU values, particularly concerning the rule of law. A current topic of debate is the duration of these safeguards. Previous clauses for countries that joined the EU in 2004 were less robust and could only be activated three years post-accession.

One point of contention for Montenegro is the preservation of its voting rights. A Montenegrin official emphasized that while the country is open to other safeguard measures, it is unwilling to relinquish its voting power in decision-making processes.

On a recent evening in Brussels, a dinner meeting took place between EU ambassadors and the head of the cabinet for Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Bjorn Seibert, where the topic of enlargement was discussed. The Commission’s proposal for an “inverse enlargement” process, which would grant candidate countries EU membership with limited privileges and voting rights, was met with strong opposition from multiple diplomats.

The overall success of Montenegro’s accession process hinges on its ability to meet its ambitious goal of becoming the EU’s 28th member by 2028. To achieve this, Montenegro must adopt numerous laws to align with EU regulations. However, the rapid pace of reforms has sparked internal political conflicts. Last month, President Milatović criticized lawmakers for passing legislation without adequate debate, initially refusing to sign the bills.

Milatović remarked, “It is not European standard to simply raise your hand and receive a salary.” He underscored the need for legislators to be mindful of the implications of their actions, even as Montenegro strives for EU membership.

Despite the urgency of reforms, significant uncertainty remains about Montenegro’s timeline to join the EU by 2028. The country has yet to close 20 of its 33 accession chapters, with plans to finalize Chapter 21, which focuses on trans-European networks, by March. Four additional chapters are anticipated to close by June, which would leave Montenegro with a tight six-month window to complete the remaining 15 chapters by the end of 2026. This deadline is crucial, as all current EU member states, including Hungary, must ratify Montenegro’s membership, a process that can be lengthy.

An EU official acknowledged that Montenegro’s ambitious membership goal is “technically feasible,” particularly with a strong commitment from Podgorica. However, the official cautioned, “There is politics, and there is life.” President Milatović agreed, recognizing the challenges ahead. “It is not easy to finalize 20 chapters in less than ten months,” he stated, emphasizing the need for intensified efforts in the coming months.