Montenegro’s EU Path Faces Obstacles from Serbian Influence

Political tensions are rising in Montenegro as the country navigates its path towards European Union membership amid significant external influences. According to Sonja Biserko, president of the Helsinki Committee in Serbia, Serbia is likely to obstruct Montenegro’s EU accession efforts through various political actors within Montenegro, particularly Andrija Mandic. The most crucial channel of influence remains the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC), which is also backed by Moscow.

Biserko emphasizes that Montenegro’s membership in NATO serves as a significant barrier against these external pressures. This development is particularly relevant given the current complex international context, especially in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. She points to recent support from the West for the Special Prosecutor’s Office in its review of the 2016 coup attempt as a critical step toward restoring Montenegro’s trajectory towards Europe and reinforcing confidence in its institutional stability.

EU Membership Challenges and Strategic Considerations

Biserko notes that the European Commission has praised Montenegro’s progress, indicating that it could be the next EU member. This positive assessment is partly driven by strategic reasons similar to those that influenced the accession of Romania and Bulgarian in the past. However, she highlights that the EU has undergone significant changes since then, with decision-making by consensus slowing down processes—a trend evident in deliberations regarding support for Ukraine.

The question of whether Montenegro can join the EU is further complicated by proposals suggesting that new members could initially lack voting rights. Biserko explains that this model, initiated by French President Emmanuel Macron, reflects the EU’s necessity for internal reform ahead of expansion. She draws attention to the lessons learned from post-Soviet countries and expresses concern over the readiness of Western Balkan nations to implement essential reforms. She suggests that “partial membership” could encourage necessary changes, provided the EU establishes clear monitoring mechanisms for new members’ progress—something that has been lacking in the past.

Biserko identifies five key areas the EU will scrutinize during a transitional period for potential new members: rule of law, external policy alignment, economic stability, migration control, and good-neighborly relations. She believes Montenegro has some advantages in this regard, as it maintains balanced regional relationships and has recognized Kosovo and the genocide in Srebrenica, setting it apart from other Western Balkan nations.

Pro-Serbian Obstacles and the Role of the SPC

Despite these advancements, pro-Serbian forces in Montenegro pose significant challenges to the EU accession process. Biserko points out that the municipality of Budva recently signed an agreement with the SPC to construct a new church, allocating €1 million for the project. This arrangement exemplifies the SPC’s influence in Montenegrin society.

Biserko asserts that the SPC functions more as a tool for Serbian and Russian influence rather than a purely religious institution, which could jeopardize the long-term stability and security of Montenegro. She argues that Montenegro’s expedited accession to the EU reflects a broader geostrategic picture in the region. The recent NATO meeting in Rome underscored the Western Balkans’ potential to become a “powder keg of Europe,” highlighting the strategic importance of the region.

She emphasizes that both the EU and NATO must accelerate their strategic actions and membership dynamics, recognizing that safeguarding the Western Balkans is essential for protecting freedom, state sovereignty, and peace on the continent, along with upholding democracy and human rights.

Biserko’s analysis suggests that the current situation is a test of President Aleksandar Vucic’s leadership in Serbia, particularly as he faces a political crisis at home. She notes that Vucic is primarily focused on his survival in power rather than resolving Serbia’s year-long political turmoil. His attempts to shift internal crises onto neighboring countries, under the guise of protecting Serbs, have not been successful.

The rising uncertainty in Serbia, combined with Vucic’s reliance on the SPC, complicates the situation further. Biserko concludes that while Vucic attempts to maintain control, his image as a stabilizing factor has significantly deteriorated over the past year.

In summary, Montenegro’s journey toward EU membership is fraught with challenges stemming from both internal and external influences. As the country navigates this complex landscape, the actions of Serbia and the SPC will play a pivotal role in shaping its future.