Scotland’s Political Landscape Faces Disillusion Ahead of Elections

The political atmosphere in Scotland is marked by a pervasive sense of disillusionment as the Holyrood elections approach in May 2024. Conversations at recent gatherings reveal a troubling consensus: expectations for the upcoming elections are alarmingly low. The Scottish National Party (SNP) is anticipated to maintain its position as the largest party, despite a decline in public support, leading many to predict a third consecutive decade of nationalist governance.

Discussions among political analysts, business leaders, and pollsters indicate a growing concern about the SNP’s grip on power. Many believe that even their own supporters are lacking enthusiasm. While the party’s polling numbers have slipped, it still appears likely to secure enough votes to emerge victorious. Scottish Labour’s prospects, on the other hand, seem to have already waned before the campaign has even begun.

The prevailing mood reflects a decade of devolved government that has been characterized by missed opportunities and challenges left unaddressed. A recent report by the think tank Our Scottish Future, founded by former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, underscores this sentiment. Based on interviews with senior civil servants, the report criticizes the government for prioritizing short-term political gains over substantive outcomes.

One civil servant articulated a common sentiment, stating that “the requirement to avoid alienating any public support for the SNP and independence stymied politicians’ willingness to think about any idea that might require substantial short-term unpopularity.” This mindset, established during the lead-up to the 2014 independence referendum, has seemingly persisted, creating a culture of avoidance within the government.

Audit Scotland, a public body known for its critical assessments, has echoed these concerns. Its latest report highlights the ongoing financial challenges facing the National Health Service (NHS), describing it as “financially unsustainable.” Despite an increase of over £3 billion and an additional 20,000 staff since 2019, the NHS’s performance has not improved as promised by the Scottish Government. The report stresses that essential reforms are needed to enhance health outcomes and reduce inequalities.

In the education sector, a paper from the think tank Enlighten reveals a staggering increase in the number of children receiving additional support in schools. The figures have surged from 33,000 to 284,000—a ninefold increase. This shift, which has broadened the definition of “special” educational needs, is placing significant pressure on teachers and school budgets. The government has acknowledged its uncertainty regarding how to manage this rising demand. Frank Lennon, a former headteacher and one of the authors of the report, stated that “the current unsustainable position has arisen from allowing an approach which is well-intentioned but has never been exposed to serious scrutiny.”

Scotland currently faces a concerning combination of performance and funding crises across its public services, alongside a political class seemingly unwilling to confront the scale of these challenges. The prevailing complacency has led to widespread disillusionment among those invested in Scottish politics.

As the elections draw closer, there is a growing sentiment that devolution, while an admirable concept, has not translated into effective governance. The disappointment felt by many who engage with Scottish politics reflects a broader concern that the status quo will persist, regardless of electoral outcomes.

With just months until the polls open, the message is clear: the current leadership is leaving behind a legacy of inaction and unfulfilled potential. This dispiriting outlook raises questions about the future direction of Scotland’s governance and the accountability of its leaders. As discussions continue in various forums, from Christmas parties to formal reports, the call for change grows ever more urgent.