Jersey’s Birth Rate Decline Sparks Urgent Calls for Action

Jersey is facing a significant demographic challenge as its birth rate continues to decline. According to Deputy Sam Mézec, the island’s housing minister, this trend, combined with an ageing population, poses a serious threat to the community’s future. A recent report from the Policy Centre Jersey reveals that the number of births in Jersey fell by 20% from 2021 to 2024, significantly outpacing the 5% drop observed in England and Wales.

The report indicates that the birth rate in the first half of 2025 was 4% lower than during the same period in 2024, highlighting a troubling trajectory. Mézec emphasized that the difficulty for young families in securing appropriate housing is a major factor discouraging them from having children. He noted that some friends have relocated from Jersey in search of more affordable living conditions to raise their families.

“They just can’t find the kind of home they want to bring their children up in, a place with enough bedrooms and outdoor space,” Mézec stated. “Over the last few decades, that has become more and more unaffordable in Jersey.” He warned of potential repercussions if the trend continues, saying, “We will have problems if we don’t have a large enough working population providing the services and paying the taxes supporting the young and the retired.”

Mézec called for immediate planning to reverse the trend, advocating for policies that support younger individuals in obtaining family-sized homes. He raised concerns about the long-term implications for Jersey’s workforce, stating, “What’s our working demographic going to look like in 20 or 30 years if we don’t have enough young people going through our education system?”

Mark Boleat, a senior advisor at the Policy Centre Jersey, echoed Mézec’s concerns, noting that the local birth rate is declining at a faster pace than in larger nations. The center’s report found that the number of babies born in Jersey decreased by 10% in 2024 compared to the previous year, while the number of primary school pupils dropped by 5.6% over the last two years. “In a big country, it can fall but it doesn’t have quite the effect. In Jersey, the fall is already having a very significant effect,” Boleat explained.

Parents in Jersey are increasingly voicing their concerns about the cost of living, which they believe is a primary factor in the declining birth rate. Bobby Yordanov, 33, who has one child, stated, “I love Jersey, but most likely if we have another child we are going to move because it’s going to be unbearable.” He highlighted that the expenses associated with raising children are becoming “ridiculously expensive,” adding that one salary in a couple barely covers nursery costs.

Similarly, Abdul Bassit, 43, a father of two, pointed out that rising costs for essentials like clothing and food are making family life increasingly difficult. He remarked, “These costs just keep going up every day.”

Not everyone views the declining birth rate as a negative trend. Environmentalist Nigel Jones argued that a lower birth rate is often linked to higher education levels, particularly among women. “The more educated young women are, the fewer children they are likely to have, and I don’t see that as a problem at all,” he stated. “There are plenty of children being born all over the world; it’s not like we have a shortage worldwide.” Jones suggested that Jersey should consider attracting workers from outside to fill future employment needs.

As the island grapples with these demographic challenges, the urgency for effective policies to foster a sustainable population growth is becoming increasingly apparent. The future of Jersey’s labour force, economy, and community cohesion may depend on how swiftly and effectively these issues are addressed.