Labour Faces Crisis as Polling Highlights Key Failures

Recent polling conducted by Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft reveals significant challenges for the Labour Party under the leadership of Keir Starmer. The survey indicates that Labour’s reputation has suffered notably due to the controversial decision to end universal entitlement to winter fuel support, a move that has resonated negatively with voters.

When respondents were asked to identify key actions taken by Labour since Sir Keir Starmer assumed leadership in 2020, the decision to means-test the winter fuel benefit was the most frequently mentioned, cited by 24% of those surveyed. This was followed by concerns over the government’s inability to halt small boat crossings, with 12% of participants highlighting this issue, and the increase in National Insurance contributions, which garnered 10% of the mentions.

Impacts of Policy Decisions

The implications of the polling are significant, particularly as Starmer prepares for his conference speech in Liverpool next week. An anonymous Labour MP expressed concern over the damage caused by the means-testing decision, describing it as a substantial issue that frames Starmer’s leadership. “I really think the problem he’s got – and what’s fatal for him – is unfortunately we are framed by the very first thing he did, which was the winter fuel payment [means-testing],” the MP stated.

This sentiment is echoed by others within the party, who have characterized the means-testing and the National Insurance increase as “self-inflicted wounds.” The MP warned that these decisions have placed Starmer’s leadership in what they termed a “death spiral.”

In June, the government reversed its stance, allowing pensioners with an income of £35,000 or under to receive winter fuel support. Nonetheless, the initial decision appears to have lingered in the public’s memory, impacting Labour’s standing.

Future Challenges Ahead

With local elections approaching in 2024, there is growing speculation that new Labour MPs may push for a change in leadership if the party performs poorly. The anonymous MP predicted, “When the newbies start feeling their feet to the fire after May when we lose council seats and we lose the [Welsh Parliament] and we don’t do very well in the Scottish Parliament, I think the pressure for him to go will be huge then.”

Despite the troubling polling results for Labour, there is a slight glimmer of hope for Starmer. The survey suggests that some voters may still prefer Labour over the alternatives, predominantly due to dissatisfaction with other potential leaders. When asked whether Sir Keir or Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch would make a better prime minister, 30% of respondents favored Starmer, while 23% chose Badenoch. In a comparison with Nigel Farage, the results were evenly split, with 39% supporting each leader.

As Labour grapples with these challenges, the upcoming conference and the results of the local elections will be crucial in determining the future direction of the party and its leadership under Sir Keir Starmer.