Macron Faces Tough Choices After Bayrou’s Government Collapse

France’s political landscape has once again shifted dramatically following the collapse of Prime Minister François Bayrou and his minority government. On March 11, 2024, the National Assembly voted 364 to 194 against Bayrou in a crucial confidence vote, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to seek a new head of government for the fifth time in less than two years.

The confidence vote was a high-stakes gamble for Bayrou, who had sought to implement significant spending cuts to address France’s growing debt, now exceeding €3.3 trillion—approximately 114% of the country’s GDP. His proposal included plans to reduce public expenditure by €44 billion by 2026, which involved controversial measures such as cutting two public holidays. Opposition parties on both the left and far right seized the opportunity to challenge his leadership, ultimately leading to his downfall.

Macron’s office has confirmed that the president will accept Bayrou’s resignation on March 12, 2024. A new prime minister will be appointed “in the coming days,” but until then, Bayrou will remain in a caretaker role, responsible only for routine matters. This marks the third time in two years that France has operated under a caretaker government, reflecting a period of significant political instability.

Macron’s Dilemma: New Prime Minister or Snap Elections?

The president now faces a critical decision: appoint a new prime minister who can effectively navigate the fragmented parliament or dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections. While Macron has thus far resisted the latter option, ongoing gridlock may leave him with little choice in the near future. Should he opt for elections, they must occur within 20 to 40 days of dissolution, as mandated by the constitution.

Traditionally, the president is expected to appoint a prime minister from the party that wins the largest number of seats. Yet, Macron is not constitutionally bound to follow this convention. If a single party achieves an outright majority, the president would likely be compelled to appoint its leader, a situation referred to as “cohabitation.” This was exemplified in 1993 when Socialist President François Mitterrand appointed conservative Prime Minister Édouard Balladur following a significant loss in legislative elections. Ignoring such a result could lead to immediate no-confidence motions against any appointed ally.

Potential Successors and Future Challenges

As speculation grows around potential successors to Bayrou, the new prime minister will be tasked with the formidable challenge of managing a budget in a parliament where no party holds a majority. Macron has committed to remaining in office until the end of his mandate in 2027, but the frequent changes in government raise concerns about France’s political stability and economic health.

Bayrou’s warning to parliament prior to the confidence vote highlighted the urgency of the situation, describing France as a country on “life support” and reliant on excessive spending. The country’s deficit stood at 5.8% of GDP in 2023, nearly double the European Union’s ceiling of 3%, with a forecast of 5.4% for the current year.

As France grapples with these challenges, the next prime minister will not only need to stabilize the government but also address the pressing issue of national debt, which continues to weigh heavily on Europe’s second-largest economy. The unfolding political drama in Paris will undoubtedly have profound implications for both the country and its role within the European Union.