Portugal Local Elections: Tight Races in Lisbon and Porto

Exit polls from Portugal’s local elections on October 1, 2023, reveal a highly competitive landscape in major cities, particularly in Lisbon and Porto. Candidates from different parties are locked in close races, while the far-right Chega party has struggled to secure victories in any of the country’s largest urban centers.

According to projections from the Catholic University of Portugal published by state broadcaster RTP, incumbent Mayor of Lisbon, Carlos Moedas, and his rival from the Socialist Party, Alexandra Leitão, each garnered between 37 percent and 42 percent of the vote. The results indicate a virtually deadlocked competition in the capital, where voter sentiment remains divided.

In Porto, the situation mirrors that of Lisbon, with conservative candidate Pedro Duarte and former Member of the European Parliament, Manuel Pizarro, also facing a neck-and-neck battle. The uncertainty surrounding the outcomes in these key cities highlights a significant shift in voter dynamics.

Separate exit polls commissioned by the SIC television network suggest that the Socialist Party candidate, António Pina, has emerged with the most votes in Faro, the capital of the southern Algarve region. Here, Chega had hoped to attract voters disillusioned with the centralized governance of Portugal but appears to have underperformed.

The Chega party, while active in all but one of the country’s 308 municipalities, has not managed to win outright in major urban centers. Its influence may still be felt as a potential kingmaker in several local governments, given its presence in over 300 parish votes where candidates ran unopposed.

The electoral climate in Portugal has been notably charged, primarily due to the ongoing housing crisis. Voters expressed a strong desire for local leaders to address escalating home and rental prices, which have become a pressing concern.

This election cycle stands out as one of the most fiercely contested in Portuguese history. With term limits leading to the absence of incumbents in nearly half of the municipalities, the landscape was primed for competition. According to projections, voter turnout was significantly affected by fatigue from recent electoral events, with an estimated 43 percent to 48 percent of eligible voters abstaining from the polls on Sunday. This trend of declining participation has been evident since 2009, when 46 percent of voters abstained in the 2021 municipal elections.

Looking ahead, Portuguese voters will soon return to the polls in January 2024 to select a successor to outgoing President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. Among the candidates are Chega President André Ventura and Admiral Henrique Gouveia de Melo, who has received praise for overseeing the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. However, his military background raises concerns among some voters regarding his suitability for the presidency.

The results of these local elections not only reflect current political attitudes in Portugal but also set the stage for future leadership dynamics at both local and national levels.