Pollster Predicts Lib Dems to Outperform Tories in Upcoming Election

The Liberal Democrats are poised to secure more seats than the Conservative Party in the next election, according to polling expert Sir John Curtice. Speaking at a fringe event during the Conservative Party conference in Manchester, Curtice emphasized that if current polling trends persist, the Liberal Democrats could gain a significant advantage due to the electoral system’s nature.

Recent polling from YouGov indicates that the Liberal Democrats are currently at 15%, just one point behind Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party, which stands at 16%. The Reform UK party leads the polls with 29%. Curtice remarked, “The Liberal Democrat vote is now much more geographically concentrated than your vote, and the electoral system is now treating you like it treated the Liberal Democrats.”

During his address, Curtice highlighted the fragmentation of the coalition that Boris Johnson had built in the 2019 election. He noted that many former Conservative voters have shifted their allegiance to Reform UK and Nigel Farage’s party. “The Johnsonian coalition of 2019 has been ripped from underneath you by Reform,” he stated, warning that the Conservative Party risks losing its status as a significant governing force in the UK.

Curtice further explained that the current political landscape remains influenced by the Brexit referendum, stating, “Don’t think that Brexit doesn’t matter in our politics. It’s fundamental.” He pointed out that the Conservative Party currently does not occupy a clear position in either the pro-EU or anti-EU spheres.

In response to questions about the challenges facing the Tories, Curtice expressed concern that the party could lose its role in the political arena. “You’ve got to get yourself back to base camp. At the moment, you frankly can’t even see the Himalayas,” he remarked, referring to the difficulties the party faces in regaining voter trust.

Curtice advised against direct confrontation with Reform UK on issues such as immigration. Instead, he suggested that the Conservatives shift their focus to the economy and healthcare, areas where they might still hold some credibility with voters. “In going for the front line of your opponents, you’re going to be going where they are best reinforced,” he cautioned.

He proposed that Conservative strategies should consider alternative tactics that target less defended areas, stating, “Which are perhaps not quite so well defended.” Curtice acknowledged that while the Conservatives are losing ground on various issues, there remains a “modicum of trust” among certain voter demographics regarding economic matters.

As the political landscape evolves, the performance of the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives in the upcoming elections could reshape the United Kingdom’s governing dynamics, making upcoming months critical for both parties.