Drone Incursions Challenge EU Security and Unity Amid Rising Tensions

A surge of drone incursions within the European Union is raising serious concerns about security and unity among member states. While some of these incidents are believed to be linked to Russia, others remain unexplained, highlighting vulnerabilities in Europe’s preparedness and the urgent need for a coordinated response.

In recent weeks, the EU has experienced a notable increase in drone-related incidents, particularly in September. On September 9, 2023, reports indicated that 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, with only four intercepted by Polish defenses. Shortly after, similar incursions were detected in Romania, and flights were disrupted at airports in Copenhagen and Oslo due to drone sightings.

According to Robert Garbett, founder and CEO of Drone Major Group, these drones are likely small hybrid vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) systems. He explained, “It is likely that the drones used in this attack were Hybrid VTOL systems purely due to the length of the incursion.” Garbett emphasized the inherent risks posed by such incursions, stating, “They could carry explosive devices for release or detonation by kamikaze action.”

In a separate incident in France on September 21-22, 2023, drones were observed flying over a military base, though the intentions of the operators remain uncertain. This ambiguity complicates the situation further. Christophe Gomart, a French Member of the European Parliament (MEP) and former director of military intelligence, suggested that the incursions could result from three scenarios: accidental interference leading to a loss of control, deliberate provocations testing reactions, or efforts to assess the defensive capabilities of European nations.

The lack of clarity surrounding the origins of these drones has led to speculation about Russian involvement. Michel Liégeois, a professor of international relations at the University of Louvain, described this strategy as a form of hybrid warfare aimed at destabilizing European countries. He noted, “Slowing air traffic causes economic losses and fuels public frustration.” Although drones identified in Poland and Estonia were confirmed to be of Russian origin, those reported in Denmark and Norway are still under investigation.

Riho Terras, an Estonian MEP and vice-chair of the European Parliament’s Security and Defence Committee, asserted that the incursions were deliberate acts. He stated, “Violations of Polish airspace and the disruptions at Danish airports were deliberate and coordinated actions.” However, definitive proof of malicious intent remains elusive, a common issue in the Baltic region where suspected Russian sabotage often lacks corroboration.

As the situation unfolds, observers note that the psychological impact of such drone activities is significant. Farah Duquesne Weber, from the Brussels-based agency Sierra Tango, emphasized, “Each incursion is a test of Europe’s cohesion. These actions seek to divide public opinion and fuel anxiety.”

Several experts argue that the drone incursions are more about political signaling than military objectives. Salvatore De Meo, an Italian MEP, suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin is “testing the reactions of EU countries and the West in general,” without any desire to escalate to a larger conflict.

Despite these provocations, European nations have largely maintained unity, which has surprised some Russian officials. This solidarity could be critical in countering potential threats. However, concerns about the EU’s readiness to deal with drone incursions persist.

Terras expressed his worries about the current state of Europe’s defenses against such low-cost provocations, saying, “Countries on the eastern flank were not prepared to respond to low-cost provocations with appropriate tools. We cannot afford to counter cheap drones with expensive missiles or jets.” While some nations, like France, have implemented effective counter-drone systems, significant disparities exist across the EU.

The European Commission recently proposed the creation of a “drone wall” along the EU’s eastern border. This network aims to detect and neutralize suspicious drones entering EU airspace. The initiative includes participation from ten member states, such as Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Finland, along with Ukraine, which possesses advanced drone capabilities.

Terras likened the proposed system to Israel’s Iron Dome, known for its effectiveness against aerial threats. However, he urged other EU members to contribute to the initiative, highlighting the variation in security priorities among member states.

Some lawmakers from Western Europe have expressed skepticism about the proposal. De Meo pointed out that it remains an evolving policy rather than a fully operational solution. Furthermore, Gomart cautioned against relying solely on a “wall” for protection, stating, “A wall is always capable of being bypassed. It never lasts forever.”

The necessity for comprehensive protective measures extends beyond borders. Liégeois stressed that the EU must also address threats originating from within its territories.

As discussions regarding the “drone wall” continue, European leaders are set to meet at an informal summit in Copenhagen, where they will address the implementation of this initiative. The heightened security measures, including a drone ban during the summit, underscore the urgency of the situation and the importance of unity in the face of emerging threats.