U.S. Targets Venezuela-Cuba Oil Trade to Undermine Maduro’s Regime

The United States is intensifying its efforts to disrupt the oil trade between Venezuela and Cuba, a strategy aimed at destabilizing the regime of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emphasized the importance of cutting financial support to Cuba, which has historically bolstered Maduro’s government. This approach follows previous attempts during former President Donald Trump’s administration, where a brief period of potential regime change in Venezuela was thwarted by Cuba’s assistance.

According to a report by The New York Times, the U.S. military’s presence in the Caribbean is increasingly characterized by what some officials refer to as “gunboat diplomacy.” This strategy seeks to isolate the Maduro regime by undermining its material support from Cuba. Juan S. Gonzalez, a former White House aide for Western Hemisphere affairs, noted, “Their theory of change involves cutting off all support to Cuba. Under this approach, once Venezuela goes, Cuba will follow.”

Seizure of the Skipper and its Implications

Recently, the U.S. seized the tanker Skipper, which was transporting crude oil contracted by Cubametales, Cuba’s state-run oil trading firm. Internal data from Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, revealed that the Skipper was headed to the Cuban port of Matanzas. After departing, it reportedly transferred approximately 50,000 barrels of oil to another vessel, the Neptune 6, which continued its journey to Cuba, before the Skipper redirected towards Asia with the remaining cargo.

Historically, Venezuela has supplied oil to Cuba at subsidized prices, creating a vital economic link between the two nations. In exchange, Cuba has dispatched thousands of medical professionals and security personnel to Venezuela, with Cuban bodyguards playing a crucial role in protecting Maduro against perceived threats, including from the U.S. military.

Despite this long-standing relationship, recent trends indicate that only a small fraction of the oil intended for Cuba has reached the island. Instead, much of it has been redirected to China, generating essential hard currency for the Cuban government. This shift has been facilitated by Panamanian businessman Ramon Carretero, identified as a key intermediary in the oil trade. The U.S. Treasury Department recently imposed sanctions on Carretero for his role in facilitating oil shipments on behalf of the Venezuelan government, although he declined to comment on the sanctions.

Broader Impact on U.S.-China Relations

The Skipper was previously part of Iran’s clandestine fleet, transporting oil to Syria and China before its involvement in the Venezuela-Cuba trade. The ongoing disruption of oil flows could have significant ramifications in the region, potentially leading to increased economic hardship in Cuba and further destabilizing Venezuela’s government. This strategy is part of a broader U.S. initiative aimed at reshaping the geopolitical landscape in Latin America.

As the U.S. continues to impose sanctions and disrupt oil shipments, tensions could escalate, particularly with China, which has not yet responded to the seizure of the Skipper. Analysts speculate whether behind-the-scenes negotiations are occurring, as any significant disruptions could complicate upcoming diplomatic discussions between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The situation continues to evolve, with the U.S. aiming to weaken Maduro’s regime by targeting its financial lifelines. The outcome of this strategy remains uncertain, but its potential to reshape the dynamics of power in the region is clear.