Somalia Faces Political Crisis Ahead of 2026 Elections

Somalia is on the brink of a significant political crisis as the country approaches its 2026 elections. The federal government’s unilateral actions, framed as democratic reforms, pose a serious threat to the legitimacy of the electoral process. With a backdrop of political discord, security issues, and financial limitations, the ambitious goal of universal suffrage appears increasingly unattainable.

For over 25 years, Somalia’s political transitions have relied on international engagement and mediation aimed at stabilizing fragile settlements. Yet, the current government, led by the Federal Government of Somalia, has taken steps that many view as a power grab. This includes unilateral amendments to the constitution and the establishment of laws that serve its interests, all while disregarding the need for broad political consensus.

Political factions, including the Council for the Future of Somalia, have emerged in response to these actions. This coalition, comprising Somalia’s national opposition and the leaders of Puntland and Jubbaland, plans to convene a political conference. Their goal is to pursue a parallel political process if the federal government fails to engage in meaningful dialogue.

Security concerns further complicate the electoral landscape. The militant group Al-Shabab continues to exert control over certain regions, posing a direct threat to any electoral process. Recently, the group launched an attack on a prison near Villa Somalia, highlighting the precarious security situation in which the elections must be conducted.

As the expiration of the government’s mandate on May 15, 2026, looms closer, discussions within the government regarding a potential unilateral term extension have surfaced. Such a move has drawn significant criticism and must be opposed to prevent further destabilization. If a political agreement is reached, a technical extension might be necessary, provided it coincides with active electoral processes.

To navigate this turbulent period, the international community’s intervention is crucial. An improved indirect election model, which Somalia has employed successfully in previous elections, could serve as a viable alternative. This model, if implemented effectively, can address the current challenges by ensuring inclusivity, competitiveness, and feasibility.

The improved indirect election model would involve a clear, practical framework. Political groups could agree on a fixed number of delegates tasked with electing representatives for each seat. Recognised traditional elders from each constituency would play a pivotal role in selecting these delegates, fostering a sense of community involvement in the electoral process.

The urgency of establishing a competitive environment cannot be overstated. Past elections have been marred by manipulation, notably through a practice known as “Malxiis,” where candidates are introduced solely to create an illusion of competition. The upcoming electoral framework must enforce strict standards to prevent such practices, ensuring that all candidates can genuinely compete.

Inclusivity remains a paramount concern, particularly regarding the representation of women in parliament. A commitment to allocating a minimum of 30 percent of parliamentary seats to women must be integral to any political agreement. The institutions overseeing the election must have the authority to enforce these quotas effectively.

Furthermore, the issue of corruption has long plagued Somalia’s electoral processes. To mitigate this, increasing the number of voters per seat by aggregating constituencies could reduce opportunities for vote buying, thus enhancing the integrity of the elections.

The international community’s role is vital in maintaining pressure on Somali political actors to reach a consensus. Previous calls for “no term extensions or unilateral elections by the government” and “no parallel political projects by the opposition” have proven effective. Clear political red lines must be established, compelling the government to refrain from unilateral actions and urging the opposition to abandon plans for separate electoral processes.

Somalia’s citizens have consistently demonstrated their commitment to democratic ideals. The barriers to progress are not rooted in public sentiment but in elite polarization and the manipulation of reforms for political gain. The international community must actively engage to prevent a legitimacy crisis, safeguarding the progress made over the past decades and protecting substantial investments in peace and state-building efforts.

In this critical juncture, proactive engagement is essential to ensure that Somalia’s upcoming elections contribute to rather than undermine the nation’s democratic aspirations.