Survey Reveals Declining Confidence in UK Rail Market

A recent survey conducted by the Railway Industry Association (RIA) has revealed a significant decline in confidence among leaders in the UK rail market. The survey, which included responses from 125 railway business leaders, was carried out by independent polling company Savanta in October and November 2025. The results indicate that 64% of respondents expect the rail market to contract within the next 12 months, a stark increase from the 48% who expressed similar concerns in a comparable survey conducted in 2024.

Furthermore, the survey highlights that 12% of the leaders anticipate growth, down from 26% in the previous year. The data suggests that nearly two-thirds, or 62%, of rail businesses are either freezing recruitment or reducing their workforce, with 34% reporting actual redundancies. Alarmingly, a substantial 85% of those surveyed believe there will be a hiatus in rail work over the upcoming year.

Business Strategies Amidst Market Uncertainty

In response to these challenges, many companies are prioritising work outside the UK and delaying recruitment efforts. Notably, the percentage of leaders predicting a contraction in their businesses has decreased by six percentage points from the previous year, now standing at 23%. Conversely, the proportion of those expecting growth has fallen by two percentage points to 44%.

Darren Caplan, Chief Executive of the RIA, has described these findings as “concerning.” He noted that, despite increasing levels of rail passenger and freight activity, the overall confidence in the UK rail market is diminishing. Caplan stated, “Rail passenger, freight and revenue levels are rising and more capacity will be required in the future, yet confidence in the UK rail market is falling and businesses are freezing recruitment or reducing headcount.”

He also pointed out that many rail businesses remain optimistic about their potential for growth, particularly in international markets. Caplan emphasised the urgent need for further action to bolster confidence in the sector.

Call for Government Action

The RIA has long warned about the cyclical nature of investment in rail infrastructure and rolling stock, and Caplan reiterated the need for decisive measures to support suppliers. He expressed concern that without adequate confidence, the sector risks losing talented individuals and essential skills to other industries and foreign markets.

Caplan highlighted the necessity for the UK Government to provide clearer guidance on rail enhancement projects within its Infrastructure Pipeline and to develop a comprehensive rolling stock strategy. He stated that clarity regarding innovative funding sources, whether private or third-party, is crucial. Additionally, major rail clients must outline their short- and medium-term spending plans promptly, especially in light of the Government’s Spending Review and Budget priorities.

These steps are essential to mitigate current market confidence issues and offer certainty to suppliers as the rail sector undergoes restructuring and the establishment of Great British Railways in the coming years.

As the UK rail landscape evolves, the importance of maintaining a confident and skilled workforce cannot be overstated. The findings from this survey serve as a critical reminder of the challenges ahead and the need for collaborative efforts to foster a thriving rail market.